Global Drought Snapshot 2023
Drought's Far-Reaching Consequences
1
IMPACTS
Understanding Drought's Reach
2
EFFECTS
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Analyzing Drought's Impact, Effects and Dividend
3
ECONOMICS
Preparing for Drought Challenges
4
ACTION
Table of Contents
Global drought vulnerability index (2023)
How are Impacts being Detected?
A recently developed method combined satellite measurements with high-resolution meteorological data, improving the resolution of the water distribution maps that are generated from around 300 kilometers to 50 kilometers (Gerdener et al., 2023). Over the last two decades, only 26% of [scientific] literature seeks to measure the extent to which society influences the duration and intensity of drought hazards. Fewer scholars (10%) have been retracing the long-term dynamics between society and drought risk (Savelli et al., 2022). Meteorological indices are best linked to impact occurrences overall and at long timescales between 15 and 33 months (Sentelles & Franzke, 2022). To fully quantify drought legacies, observations of up to 5 and 15 years may be required for grasslands and forests, respectively (Müller & Bahn, 2022). The U.S. Drought Monitor uses a 5-category system, labeled Abnormally Dry or D0, (a precursor to drought, not actually drought), Moderate (D1), Severe (D2), Extreme (D3) and Exceptional (D4) Drought. The map is updated weekly (USDM, 2023). In Southeast Asia, nearly 64% of the drought digital maps were produced at a spatial resolution of 1km and above, whereas only 20% of the publications had a spatial resolution of less than 100m (Ha et al., 2022).
Asia
Glaciers in the High Mountain Asia region have lost significant mass over the past 40 years, and the loss is accelerating. In 2022, exceptionally warm and dry conditions exacerbated the mass loss for most glaciers (WMO, 2023c). The entire territories of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Syrian Arab Republic, Afghanistan and Myanmar; along with the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins in Central Asia saw below-normal and much-below-normal discharge conditions in 2022. In southern China, the Yangtze River, impacted by drought and prolonged heat, reached record-low water levels affecting almost 5 million people. (WMO, 2023a)
Europe
In Europe, the average annual drought impacts on grasslands was around 20,000km² (ca. 5% of grasslands) comparable to the area of Slovenia (EEA, 2023). In relative terms, [forest] losses in the Mediterranean region will double or triple under 3°C warming compared to the current risk (Rossi et al., 2023). A study focusing on the Rhine and Meuse rivers found significant increases in water temperature (on average +1.9°C) and salinity levels (+11%), increased pharmaceutical concentrations of carbamazepine (on average +10%) and metoprolol (+29%) during periods of drought (Wolff & Van Vliet, 2021).
Africa
A literature review focused on South Africa shows that the negative impacts of drought on ecology include loss of grazing land (33%), loss of water (17%), deterioration of water quality, contamination of drinking water, increase in temperature (11%), and loss of vegetation (11%) (Ruwanza et al., 2022).
North America
Drought-induced pumpage has precipitated dramatic groundwater-level declines in California's Central Valley over the past 30 years. Long-term rates of groundwater-level decline and water-quality degradation in overdrafted basins accelerated by factors of 2–5 during [periods of] drought (Levy et al., 2021).
Cascading Effects on Ecological Systems
The Multiple Impacts of Drought
Ecosystems
Drought has multiple negative impacts even within a single domain. For example, droughts severely impact ecosystems with homogeneous vegetation, which are most susceptible to drought, especially under long-term drought conditions (Ding et al., 2020). Besides, drought can lead to the migration or even the extinction of entire animal species (Orimoloye et al., 2022).
Human Society
The drought has affected about 50 million people in the Horn of Africa directly and another 100 million in the wider area. About 20 million people are at risk of acute insecurity and potentially famine. At least 4.35 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance, and at least 180,000 refugees have fled Somalia and South Sudan for kenya and Ethiopia, which have also been affected by the drought.
GDP and Welfare
The impacts of drought are intensified by their diverse effects across different sectors, including rivers, watercourses, agriculture, electricity production, industry, as well as significant implications for GDP and welfare (IPCC, 2022).
Economics
In Europe, Economy damage from drouhgts jumped by 63% in 2021 compared with the 20-year average. In the past 50 years, drought-related hazards have led to economic losses of over 70 billion USD in Africa.
Agriculture
The impacts of drought in the Mediterranean region include substantial crop damage (e.g., 70% loss of cereal crops from 2016 to 2018), urban water supply rationing (e.g., restrictions in Avila in 1993), drops in hydropower production (e.g., about 50% drop during the droughts of 2004–2005 and 2011–2013) (Casas et al., 2022).
Energy
Drought can jeopardize primary energy production, e.g., when cooling capacities for power plants reduce due to lowered water levels in adjacent water bodies, requiring a reduction of total energy outputs. Hydropower installations can also be impacted when a lack of water reduces their proper operation. For example, Spanish hydropower generation, which accounts for more than 11% of total energy produced in the country, was at very low levels in 2022 (Lauro, 2022).
Land Degradation
Overall, land degradation has caused a significant reduction (at 0.4% each year) in global productivity from irrigated and rain-fed crops and rangeland over the last three decades.
Forests
Droughts increased deforestation by 7.6% compared to years of near normal weather. The impact was most severe in dry and semi-arid areas, which is up to +17%.
Soil
Without additional environmental flows and more active restoration areas, long-term reduction of vegetation and increase in bare soils at the reach-level is expected to continue at a rate of 1%-2% yearly decreases.
Global
Between 2010 and 2020, human mortality from floods, droughts and storms was 15 times higher in highly vulnerable regions, compared to regions with very low vulnerability (IPCC, 2023). In high-income countries, extreme droughts reduce growth by a little less than half the impact felt in developing countries (World Bank, 2023).
Africa
The Horn of Africa faced its worst drought in 40 years, with Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia particularly hard hit. Five consecutive failures of rainfall seasons have wreaked havoc over large parts of East Africa and contributed to reduced agricultural productivity, food insecurity and high food prices (WMO, 2023b).
Asia
About 15–20% of the population in China will face more frequent extreme-to-exceptional (moderate-to-severe) droughts in the 21st century (Yin et al., 2022). Despite floods, large areas in China suffered high temperatures and low rainfall in 2022. The nation’s largest river – the Yangtze – and others dropped to levels so low that hydroelectric power generation and river transportation were affected. A report estimated insured losses at $8.4 billion (Planelles et al., 2022).
Latin America
Exposed to heatwaves and unpredictable rainfall, the ecosystems and peoples of the Central American Dry Corridor are especially vulnerable to climate change. A 5th year of drought left 1.2 million people in the region needing food aid (UNEP, 2022).
Multiple Effects on Human Systems
The Economics of Drought
Ecosystems Toll
Drought has multiple negative impacts even within a single domain. For example, droughts severely impact ecosystems with homogeneous vegetation, which are most susceptible to drought, especially under long-term drought conditions (Ding et al., 2020). Besides, drought can lead to the migration or even the extinction of entire animal species (Orimoloye et al., 2022).
Diverse Sector Impacts
The impacts of drought are intensified by their diverse effects across different sectors, including rivers, watercourses, agriculture, electricity production, industry, as well as significant implications for GDP and welfare (IPCC, 2022).
Energy Vulnerability
Drought can jeopardize primary energy production, e.g., when cooling capacities for power plants reduce due to lowered water levels in adjacent water bodies, requiring a reduction of total energy outputs. Hydropower installations can also be impacted when a lack of water reduces their proper operation. For example, Spanish hydropower generation, which accounts for more than 11% of total energy produced in the country, was at very low levels in 2022 (Lauro, 2022).
Mediterranean Toll
The impacts of drought in the Mediterranean region include substantial crop damage (e.g., 70% loss of cereal crops from 2016 to 2018), urban water supply rationing (e.g., restrictions in Avila in 1993), drops in hydropower production (e.g., about 50% drop during the droughts of 2004–2005 and 2011–2013) (Casas et al., 2022).
The Drought
We Made:
Driving Anthropogenic Causes
The Economics
of Drought
DROUGHT DAMAGE
$6.6 B
According to the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT), drought occurrences between 1950 and 2021 affected close to half a billion people on the African continent, with damages of about 6.6 billion USD (Ayugi et al., 2022)
According to the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT), drought occurrences between 1950 and 2021 affected close to half a billion people on the African continent, with damages of about 6.6 billion USD (Ayugi et al., 2022)
ECONOMIC LOSSES
$70 B
Africa is particularly under the negative impacts of drought. In the past 50 years, drought-related hazards have led to economic losses of over 70 billion USD on the continent (WMO, 2022).
Africa is particularly under the negative impacts of drought. In the past 50 years, drought-related hazards have led to economic losses of over 70 billion USD on the continent (WMO, 2022). In Europe, economic damage from droughts jumped by 63% in 2021 compared with the 20-year average.
SOYBEAN PRODUCTION
44%
In Argentina, soybean production in 2023 is expected to be 44% lower than the average of the preceding five years, and the soy harvest is forecasted to be the lowest since 1988/89. The drought has already reduced the estimated Argentinian GDP for 2023 by 3 percentage points (EU Science Hub, 2023).
In Argentina, soybean production in 2023 is expected to be 44% lower than the average of the preceding five years, and the soy harvest is forecasted to be the lowest since 1988/89. The drought has already reduced the estimated Argentinian GDP for 2023 by 3 percentage points (EU Science Hub, 2023).
CARGOES CAPACITY
25%
Africa is particularly under the negative impacts of drought. In the past 50 years, drought-related hazards have led to economic losses of over 70 billion USD on the continent (WMO, 2022).
The summer of 2022 brought low water levels to the Rhine that caused severe delays in shipping arrivals and departures. Some vessels were forced to sail with cargoes at just 25% capacity as Europe endured its worst drought in 500 years (World Economic Forum, 2022).
SUPPLY CHAIN DAMAGES
$20 B
The Mississippi River runs from Lake Itasca in northern Minnesota for nearly 2,350 miles to the Gulf of Mexico, transporting over 450 million tons of imports, exports and domestic freight every year. But some routes were closed off in October because of low water levels, until dredging operations deepened shipping channels to allow a backlog of over 2,000 barges to reach their destinations. The cost of this was $20 billion in supply chain impacts and economic damage, according to AccuWeather (World Economic Forum, 2022).
The Mississippi River runs from Lake Itasca in northern Minnesota for nearly 2,350 miles to the Gulf of Mexico, transporting over 450 million tons of imports, exports and domestic freight every year. But some routes were closed off in October because of low water levels, until dredging operations deepened shipping channels to allow a backlog of over 2,000 barges to reach their destinations. The cost of this was $20 billion in supply chain impacts and economic damage, according to AccuWeather (World Economic Forum, 2022).
PLANNING for DROUGHT
$4 M
The difference in planning strategies leads to very different annual costs. Planning for short intense droughts and all droughts would cost the city of Santa Barbara over 4 million USD a year, about four times the cost of planning for long mild droughts. Planning for historical and frequent droughts results in about 2.5 million and 3 million USD a year respectively (Zaniolo et al., 2023).
The difference in planning strategies leads to very different annual costs. Planning for short intense droughts and all droughts would cost the city of Santa Barbara over 4 million USD a year, about four times the cost of planning for long mild droughts. Planning for historical and frequent droughts results in about 2.5 million and 3 million USD a year respectively (Zaniolo et al., 2023).
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The Case for Proactive Investment
Global heating and changes to how the land is used, especially deforestation, are among the biggest factors responsible for humanity’s transgression of this [water-related] planetary boundary. Their combined influence indicates that the planetary boundaries interact and need to be treated as one networked system. (Tobian et al., 2022)
With a warming of 3°C above pre-industrial levels, an estimated 170 million people would experience extreme drought. By limiting the warming to 1.5°C, the population exposed to such conditions would decrease to 120 million. (IPCC, 2022)
Drought is expected to worsen in many regions during the 21st century, even with strong climate change mitigation, and more severely in the absence of this. The global population exposed to extreme-to-exceptional drought is projected to increase from 3% to 8% by 2100. (IPCC, 2022)
Compound extreme heat and drought will hit 90% of the world’s population, potentially widening social inequalities as well as undermining the natural world’s ability to reduce CO2 emissions in the atmosphere. (Yin et al., 2023)
The Future is Yet to Come
The Four Pillars of Holistic
Drought Engagement (IDRA)
Making drought resilience a global priority and for it to be mainstreamed in national development policies and donor relationships
01
Generate
Political Momentum
Promote Full Engagement from stakeholders including the private sector for increasing drought resilience
02
Promote
Full Engagement
Facilitate knowledge sharing and networking with other alliances and platforms to increase synergistic impacts that enhance drought resilience
03
Facilitate
Knowledge Sharing
Consolidate Regional initiative facilitating action, innovation, technology and knowledge transfers, and resource mobilization for drought resilience at different levels
04
Consolidate
Regional Initiative
International Drought Resilience Alliance (IDRA) functions as a collaborative platform that catalyzes political momentum and mobilizes resources for targeted actions to enhance drought resilience for communities, countries, and cities.
False Facts and
Fake Solutions
No need for climate action: A cross-national study shows a considerable spread of misconceptions about climate change in the surveyed countries. 33% of the surveyed population in the US and Australia believe that global warming is a natural phenomenon and is not a direct result of human activity. In Brazil, 30% believe that climate change is not caused mainly by human activity, and 24% believe that the temperature record is unreliable or rigged (Climate Action Against Disinformation and Conscious Advertising Network, 2022). [Global] Time is on our side: Most Net Zero commitments are often centred on a 2050 timeline which is too many years ahead for credible plans to ensure global temperature is kept below 1.5°C. (WECF, 2021). [Global] Big business will save us: More than 90% of corporate-led restoration projects fail to report a single ecological outcome. Further, around 80% of projects do not reveal how much money is invested in restoration, and a third fail to even state the area of habitat they aim to restore (Lancaster University, 2023). [Global] Drought science is sound and solution-oriented: A meta study found that on average only 11% of the literature conduct any form of validation, 10% develop future scenarios of drought risk, and only about 40% of the assessments establish a direct link to drought risk-reduction or adaptation strategies (Hagenlocher et al., 2019). [Global] It rains at our command: Mexico has run at least 5 cloud-seeding programmes. On the basis of those runs, the National Commission for Arid Zones reported that the technology is 98% effective at mitigating the effects of drought and that it has extinguished at least 25 wildfires. But there is no evidence that it will work every time (Valero, 2023). [Latin America] We are the weather-maker: China has used various techniques to manipulate the weather, including massive cloud seeding operations. In 2017, a Chinese military contractor planned to modify Tibetan Plateau weather, potentially shifting 5-10 billion cubic meters of rainfall to northern China, with unknown impacts on local residents and global climate (ETC Group, 2023). [Asia] Innovation and insurances go hand in hand: In the US agricultural sector, climate-driven innovation is observed. However, subsidized crop insurance reduces this response by approximately 2%, potentially impeding long-term climate change adaptation (Miao, 2020). [North America]
The Options
on the Table
A study shows that sustainable development would reduce population exposure to drought by 70% compared to fossil-fuelled development (Tabari & Willems, 2023). Options like ending poverty through reform of the international financial system, such as lifting 3-4 billion people out of poverty and addressing gross inequality by ensuring that the wealthiest 10% take less than 40% of national incomes, can avoid regional societal collapse driven by rising social tensions, food insecurity and environmental degradation (Sandrine Dixson-Decleve et al., 2022). Close to 45% of disaster-related losses at a global level in 2020 were insured, a growth from 40% of insured loss over the period of 1980-2018. However, disaster insurance cover remains very low in many developing countries (UNDRR, 2022). On average, only 15% of rainwater enters the ground in urban areas while in rural areas 50% of rainwater is absorbed into the ground. Rainwater harvesting provides both urban and rural areas with an efficient option to store rainwater and then reuse it in times of drought (Vyas, 2023). One hundred cities in the EU are supposed to become climate neutral by 2030. But the policy program that they follow focuses too much on technological solutions. Nature-based solutions have the potential to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by up to 25% (Pan et al., 2023).
Epilogue
All facts and figures point to one direction: the need to move forward to a more drought-resilient future is immanent and without alternative. We are facing an unprecedented emergency on a planetary scale, where the massive impacts of human-induced droughts are only starting to unfold.
Several countries are already experiencing climate-change-induced famine; forced migration surges globally; violent water conflicts are on the rise; the ecological base that enables all life on earth is eroding more quickly than at any time in known human history.
We have created a world where no other hazard claims more lives, creates more economic loss and affects more sectors of societies than drought. Transformational change is needed. We must depart from the false promises of “development” that leave billions behind in poverty and destroy the planet’s ecological systems at an unprecedented scale and speed.
Nothing in nature can survive unlimited growth. Nothing in nature exists independently. Everything is interconnected and we are starting to realize this only now. We are not separated from nature, but are an integral part of this fragile web that evolved over millennia.
We have no alternative but to move forward in a way that respects the planet’s boundaries and the interdependencies of all forms of life. We need to reach binding global agreements for proactive measures that are to be taken by nations to curtail the spells of drought. The less space the developed human world occupies, the more natural hydrological cycles remain intact. Restoring, rebuilding and revitalizing all those landscapes that we have degraded and destroyed is the imperative of our time. Urban intensification, active family planning, and curbing rapid population growth are prerequisites for societal development that respects planetary boundaries. One crucial factor in this is a dietary shift toward more plant-based nutrition that does not rely on industrial animal farming and is much less resource intensive, in regard to both land or water.
It is possible to reach a stage where the risks are manageable and where human activities do not further amplify drought, but actively work towards building a future worth living in.
All facts and figures point to one direction: the need to move forward to a more drought-resilient future is immanent and without alternative. We are facing an unprecedented emergency on a planetary scale, where the massive impacts of human-induced droughts are only starting to unfold. Several countries are already experiencing climate-change-induced famine; forced migration surges globally; violent water conflicts are on the rise; the ecological base that enables all life on earth is eroding more quickly than at any time in known human history. We have created a world where no other hazard claims more lives, creates more economic loss and affects more sectors of societies than drought. Transformational change is needed. We must depart from the false promises of “development” that leave billions behind in poverty and destroy the planet’s ecological systems at an unprecedented scale and speed. Nothing in nature can survive unlimited growth. Nothing in nature exists independently. Everything is interconnected and we are starting to realize this only now. We are not separated from nature, but are an integral part of this fragile web that evolved over millennia. We have no alternative but to move forward in a way that respects the planet’s boundaries and the interdependencies of all forms of life. We need to reach binding global agreements for proactive measures that are to be taken by nations to curtail the spells of drought. The less space the developed human world occupies, the more natural hydrological cycles remain intact. Restoring, rebuilding and revitalizing all those landscapes that we have degraded and destroyed is the imperative of our time. Urban intensification, active family planning, and curbing rapid population growth are prerequisites for societal development that respects planetary boundaries. One crucial factor in this is a dietary shift toward more plant-based nutrition that does not rely on industrial animal farming and is much less resource intensive, in regard to both land or water. It is possible to reach a stage where the risks are manageable and where human activities do not further amplify drought, but actively work towards building a future worth living in.
The Scale and
Commitment We Need
The threat of a mass extinction of plant and animal species led 195 nations to agree to protect and restore at least 30% of the Earth’s land and water by 2030 (CBD, 2022).
Substituting half of animal products, such as pork, chicken, beef and milk, consumed globally with more sustainable alternatives could “almost fully halt” the conversion of forests and natural land for agriculture, according to new research (Carbon Brief, 2023).
The United Nations Secretary-General announced that the Early Warning for All initiative aims at covering the whole world with early warning systems by 2027 (ITU Hub, 2023).
The water level in the Aral Sea has increased by nearly 1.5 billion cubic meters, rising to 95 centimeters for the first time in many years. The Kyzylorda Region has restored soil moisture almost from scratch. (Sakenova, 2023).
Micro-irrigation, also known as drip irrigation, reduces water waste by delivering water directly to the root of the plant. Though costly, micro-irrigation systems use about 20 to 50% less water than conventional sprinkler systems (STEM Writer, 2022).
The Volta basin Flood and Drought management project aims at providing the first large-scale and transboundary implementation of Integrated Flood and Drought Management strategies through the complete chain of an End-to-End Early Warning System for Flood Forecasting and Drought Prediction. This includes six riparian countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Mali and Togo). (Deltares, 2023).
The threat of a mass extinction of plant and animal species led 195 nations to agree to protect and restore at least 30% of the Earth’s land and water by 2030 (CBD, 2022). Substituting half of animal products, such as pork, chicken, beef and milk, consumed globally with more sustainable alternatives could “almost fully halt” the conversion of forests and natural land for agriculture, according to new research (Carbon Brief, 2023). The United Nations Secretary-General announced that the Early Warning for All initiative aims at covering the whole world with early warning systems by 2027 (ITU Hub, 2023). The water level in the Aral Sea has increased by nearly 1.5 billion cubic meters, rising to 95 centimeters for the first time in many years. The Kyzylorda Region has restored soil moisture almost from scratch. (Sakenova, 2023). Micro-irrigation, also known as drip irrigation, reduces water waste by delivering water directly to the root of the plant. Though costly, micro-irrigation systems use about 20 to 50% less water than conventional sprinkler systems (STEM Writer, 2022). The Volta basin Flood and Drought management project aims at providing the first large-scale and transboundary implementation of Integrated Flood and Drought Management strategies through the complete chain of an End-to-End Early Warning System for Flood Forecasting and Drought Prediction. This includes six riparian countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Mali and Togo). (Deltares, 2023).